Trump's Low Approval Could Spark Historic Democratic Win in Kansas Senate Race
Data analyst Harry Enten warns that Donald Trump's unusually poor popularity in Kansas may help Democrat Adam Hamilton defeat incumbent Senator Roger Marshall in the upcoming midterms.
Harry Enten, one outlet's chief data analyst, examined the Kansas Senate contest after one outlet/Siena poll tied Republican incumbent Roger Marshall with Democrat Adam Hamilton at 45% each, and a later Hill/Emerson College poll gave Hamilton a two-point lead. He emphasized that Donald Trump's approval in Kansas has fallen to minus 15, the deepest decline for any Republican president at this point in a term, surpassing even George W. Bush's drop after 2002.
Enten argued that Kansas is no longer the solidly red state it once was, noting that the number of states more Republican than Kansas has risen from seven to seventeen since the 2004-2008 period. Hamilton's own approval sits at plus 12, making him the most popular Democratic Senate candidate in recent polling. Combining Trump's historic unpopularity with Hamilton's strong favorability, Enten warned the race could produce the first Democratic senator from Kansas in 94 years.
Why it matters
A Democratic win in Kansas would signal a major shift in a traditionally Republican stronghold during a pivotal midterm election.
How this story developed
- Aug 26 Democrats See New Paths to Flip the Senate in 2026 Midterms
- Sep 15 Decision Desk HQ released new simulations that now rate the Senate as a pure toss‑up and raise the Democrats’ projected chance to win the House to 67 %.
- Sep 16 A post-convention poll showed Democrats ahead on the generic ballot.
- Sep 17 Stickers mocking Trump on gas pumps have begun appearing publicly.
- Sep 22 The generic‑ballot advantage for Democrats has grown to about seven points.
- Sep 25 New interviews highlight the war’s impact on a U.S. retreat and Trump’s renewed Greenland claims.
- Sep 25 Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 32%, prompting more Republicans to distance themselves from his policies.
- Sep 28 The president began a campaign tour of traditionally red states such as Iowa, Florida, Texas and Alaska, as well as Oklahoma and Alabama.
- Sep 29 Treasury and Energy secretaries clarified that diesel‑export limits would likely be voluntary.
- Sep 30 Recent polls show most registered voters treat voting as a duty, trust state election fairness, and remain divided on political figures.
- Oct 2 Trump and Vance began a joint campaign tour targeting Texas and Florida.
- Oct 2 Democrats posted net voter‑registration gains in Arizona, Maine, Nevada, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
- Oct 4 A new Iowa poll describes the Senate race as closely divided.
- Oct 5 The poll released in late September revealed President Trump’s economic approval fell to 17%.
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