Trump's policies may trigger a record Social Security cost-of-living boost in 2027
Analysts say tariffs and the Iran conflict are driving inflation that could force a 3.4-3.6% Social Security COLA in 2027, the largest in decades.
Projections from the nonpartisan Senior Citizens League suggest Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment could reach 3.6%, while policy analyst Mary Johnson expects a 3.4% rise, both representing the sixth straight year of adjustments above 2.5%—a trend last observed between 1988 and 1997. The report attributes this surge to inflation spurred by President Donald Trump’s tariff regime and the Iran war, which have altered global supply routes and lifted petroleum-based product prices.
The Social Security Board of Trustees warns that the program faces a $29.3 trillion unfunded obligation over the next 75 years, with the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund projected to run out of assets by the fourth quarter of 2032. These fiscal pressures could directly affect the more than 71 million current beneficiaries and their families. The analysis also notes Trump’s personal earnings and alleged financial maneuvers, suggesting a broader context of policy and profit intertwining with retirement security.
Why it matters
Rising inflation could force the biggest Social Security boost in decades, straining an already underfunded system.
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