Trump Shifts Midterm Tour to Deep-Red States as GOP Senate Races Tighten
Donald Trump is focusing upcoming campaign stops on solidly Republican states like Oklahoma and Alabama while GOP Senate races in Texas, Alaska, Iowa and Florida become unexpectedly competitive.
Donald Trump is scheduling rallies in deep-red states such as Oklahoma and Alabama, where the Republican base remains strong, as part of his midterm outreach. Meanwhile, Senate contests in four states long considered safe for Republicans are showing signs of vulnerability. A Marist poll in Texas shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Trump-endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton, 50-44.
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads incumbent Dan Sullivan by four to five points according to recent surveys. Iowa’s Josh Turek, who carries Barack Obama’s endorsement, enjoys an eight-point lead over Republican Ashley Hinson in a Marist poll. Florida’s GOP candidates still hold double-digit advantages in a Stetson University poll, but the overall trend signals tighter races. The Trump 47 Committee, in partnership with the Republican National Committee, is hosting the Oklahoma and Alabama events, which appear more about energizing the base than shoring up specific candidates.
Why it matters
The shift highlights GOP anxieties over traditionally safe Senate seats and Trump's strategy to rally support ahead of crucial midterm elections.
How this story developed
- Aug 15 Trump aides say president reluctant to campaign for down-ballot Republicans
- Sep 11 Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa voiced support for a universal $5,000 payout while insisting it should not be conditioned on the midterm results.
- Sep 11 Vance hinted at a possible 2028 presidential bid.
- Sep 12 Some GOP candidates chose to skip the convention, distancing themselves from Trump.
- Sep 12 Trump said tariff revenue would fund the payout and that the Iran conflict would conclude after the midterm election.
- Sep 14 Rep. Mike Lawler said a funding source must be identified for the proposed payout.
- Sep 14 Republican candidates have also entered secretary of state races in Arizona and Wisconsin.
- Sep 15 Decision Desk HQ released new simulations that now rate the Senate as a pure toss‑up and raise the Democrats’ projected chance to win the House to 67 %.
- Sep 16 A post-convention poll showed Democrats ahead on the generic ballot.
- Sep 17 Stickers mocking Trump on gas pumps have begun appearing publicly.
- Sep 22 The generic‑ballot advantage for Democrats has grown to about seven points.
- Sep 23 Republican candidates have begun to explicitly reduce Trump references in their campaign materials.
- Sep 25 New interviews highlight the war’s impact on a U.S. retreat and Trump’s renewed Greenland claims.
- Sep 25 Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 32%, prompting more Republicans to distance themselves from his policies.
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