Turkey's opposition can win votes but may still lose power under Erdoğan

The article uses the case of Üsküdar, where a CHP mayor was elected in 2024 but later jailed and replaced by an AKP-aligned council, to illustrate Turkey's democratic erosion under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. It recounts how the AKP has reshaped the media, dismissed thousands of civil servants, and politicized the courts since the 2016 coup attempt, culminating in a presidential system that concentrates power. Opposition victories in Istanbul and Ankara, including Ekrem İmamoğlu's mayoral wins, have been followed by arrests and legal attacks that undermine their authority.

The author questions whether a future electoral loss for Erdoğan would truly transfer power, given the pattern of using institutions to overturn results. Western governments are aware of these trends but often prioritize strategic interests over democratic pressure. The piece concludes that Turkey's one outlet hinges less on voting and more on the willingness of losers to accept defeat.