Turkey's year-end inflation outlook stays near 29.6% as market survey shows
A Central Bank survey indicates that expectations for consumer-price inflation at the end of 2026 in Turkey barely changed, holding at about 29.6%.
According to the Central Bank's most recent Survey of Market Participants, Turkish market actors expect end-2026 consumer-price inflation to remain essentially unchanged at roughly 29.6%. The 12-month ahead inflation estimate increased slightly to 23.89% from 23.70%, whereas the 24-month projection fell to 17.94% from 18.32%. Respondents anticipate the central bank will keep its policy rate at 36% when the Monetary Policy Committee convenes in October.
Exchange-rate expectations for the lira were largely steady for year-end, with the dollar forecast at 51.55 lira, while the 12-month outlook rose to 59.26 lira per dollar. GDP growth for 2026 was revised down to 2.9%, with the 2027 forecast unchanged at 3.9%.
Why it matters
Inflation expectations guide monetary policy and affect households' purchasing power in Turkey.
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