U.S. builds island chain defenses as missile shortages threaten China deterrence

The Pentagon is reviving dormant Pacific airbases and adding new facilities on islands such as Guam, the Caroline Islands and Tinian to implement an "island chain" strategy that seeks to confine Chinese military activity near its coast. China counters by expanding its rocket force, developing long-range ballistic missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles that could strike those U.S. sites. The United States’ ability to sustain this posture is hampered by sharp declines in precision-guided munitions, artillery shells and surface-to-air missiles after supporting Ukraine and recent operations in the Middle East.

A Naval War College paper recommends a dispersed, mobile approach that relies on a high-low mix of cheap, rapidly produced drones and sensors alongside traditional platforms. Former Central Command official Maj Gen Rajan Kochhar warns that without accelerating production and easing procurement rules, the U.S. may lack the firepower to deter a Chinese move against Taiwan. The analysis stresses that perception of long-term combat capability, not just short-term victories, will be crucial for maintaining regional stability.