U.S. doubts China will launch Taiwan invasion before 2028 despite 2027 readiness goal

U.S. officials familiar with the matter say China’s target of being prepared to seize Taiwan by 2027 is becoming less realistic, making an invasion before 2028 improbable. The slowdown is linked to the Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign, which has hampered military progress, and to Beijing’s desire to see the outcome of Taiwan’s 2028 election. Chinese leaders hope a new administration might be more receptive to reunification, but a victory for President Lai Ching-te and the Democratic Progressive Party would likely push China to consider force after 2028.

The assessment updates a long-standing U.S. view that Xi Jinping ordered the People’s one outlet Army to be ready for a 2027 operation. Neither the Pentagon nor Chinese diplomatic missions responded to comment requests. Analysts note the 2027 benchmark reflects preparedness rather than a fixed invasion date, and that China’s recent drills have been smaller than in prior years.