U.S. Leading Economic Index Shows Six-Month Turnaround, Signaling Continued Growth
The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Index rose 0.6% over the six months to September, reversing a prior decline and suggesting the U.S. economy will keep expanding.
The Conference Board's latest Leading Economic Index increased by 0.6% in the six months ending September, ending a 1.1% drop in the previous half-year and indicating a shift toward sustained expansion. Eight of the ten sub-indicators rose, and the recession warning system showed no trigger conditions. The index remained at 99.6 in September after a minor decline in August, boosted by an upward revision to July's data.
Gains were driven mainly by the 10-year Treasury-fed funds spread, longer manufacturing workweeks, and a stronger Leading Credit Index, while consumer expectations for business conditions fell sharply. The Board now forecasts real GDP growth of 2.2% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027, supported by a coincident index that also rose, reflecting broader economic momentum despite higher interest rates and soft housing demand.
Why it matters
Stronger leading indicators suggest the U.S. economy may avoid a recession and maintain growth in the near term.
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