UK dairy output slumps in record heatwave, raising cheese and butter cost worries

Analysis of delivery records reveals that the UK’s hottest summer on record in 2026 caused dairy farms to supply 240 million litres less milk than anticipated, a deficit valued at over £83 million and equivalent to more than a billion school milk cartons. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit noted that producers missed four days of expected output from May to August, with 87 individual days underperforming compared with the 2008-2025 benchmark.

The shortfall was most severe in June, July and August, affecting every day in the latter two months. Although the overall milk supply is projected to stay near record levels thanks to earlier stockpiling and farm consolidation, the gap may slightly lift prices for skimmed milk powder, cheese and butter. Experts stress that a shrinking dairy herd amplifies vulnerability to climate shocks, and farmers are already facing higher feed costs as they resort to winter feed earlier than usual.