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UK warns that intense El Niño could trigger security crises worldwide

Britain’s foreign secretary presented a classified intelligence report linking the upcoming strong El Niño to heightened risks of conflict, migration and food shortages.

During a closed-door session of foreign ministers in New York, the UK’s foreign secretary, Ed Miliband, delivered a Joint Intelligence Committee report warning that the strongest El Niño on record will exacerbate climate shocks, threatening food and water security, displacing populations and inflaming geopolitical tensions. The document, originally slated for release last October but delayed by Downing Street, links ecosystem degradation in the Amazon and Congo Basin to broader national-security risks.

Miliband emphasized that climate and nature loss are now core foreign-policy issues, not just environmental concerns. He also unveiled a £330 million pledge to the Global Environment Facility aimed at safeguarding critical forests and bolstering resilient agriculture and fisheries for the world’s most vulnerable. The briefing cited research predicting up to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths by February, especially in poorer nations already strained by food insecurity and energy costs.

Why it matters

The warning ties climate extremes to global security, urging immediate action to prevent conflict and humanitarian crises.

In this story

El Niñoclimate emergencyfood scarcityecosystem collapseglobal heat deathssustainable agriculturedeforestation
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