Ukraine's Central Bank Cites $46 bn of Pending Currency Needs, Slowing Liberalisation
The National Bank of Ukraine estimates a $46 bn backlog of foreign-currency transactions for 2026-27, prompting a cautious, gradual easing of controls.
Ukraine's monetary authority projects that transactions still subject to currency controls will generate a $46 bn demand for foreign exchange in 2026-27, limiting how quickly it can relax those rules. The estimate, derived from first-half results, is $1 bn less than the bank's previous forecast. The largest share of the pending demand comes from non-bank borrowers needing to repay $21 bn of loan principal and $6 bn of interest, while bank clients owe about $9 bn in dividends.
Additional obligations include customs-related payments, Eurobond principal repayments and bank dividend payouts. The regulator argues that an abrupt liberalisation could trigger sizable outflows from reserves before new capital inflows materialise, especially given irregular aid disbursements and security concerns. Consequently, it proposes a measured easing of restrictions once martial law is lifted, guided by macro-economic conditions.
Why it matters
The size of Ukraine's hidden foreign-currency demand could shape the pace of monetary reform and affect reserve stability.
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