Uncertainty surrounds peacekeeping after UNIFIL mandate ends in southern Lebanon

UNIFIL, deployed since 1978, will see its mandate lapse at the close of the year, prompting discussions about a successor peacekeeping arrangement for southern Lebanon, a region still scarred by the 2023 Israeli war. While there is broad support for continued international troops, experts say any new force would be reduced in size and embedded within a broader regional agreement. The recent Israel-Lebanon framework creates “pilot zones” where Israeli forces withdraw and the Lebanese army assumes control, but UNIFIL has no role there, reflecting pressure from the United States and Israel.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres presented three staffing scenarios, from 900 to 3,000 personnel, and some European states have expressed willingness to contribute. Scholars caution that without a comprehensive political settlement addressing Hezbollah’s arms and Israeli occupation, a smaller force may have limited impact. A gap between UNIFIL’s departure and a new deployment could be hard to fill, risking renewed instability.