Uncontrolled closure of Sasol's Secuda plant could erase $550 million from South Africa's GDP

University of Cape Town researchers have modeled the economic fallout of an uncontrolled shutdown of Sasol's Secuda coal-to-liquids plant, concluding that the loss could shave $550 million off South Africa's $400 billion gross domestic product and endanger close to 25,000 jobs. The Secuda facility, which is the planet’s biggest single-site source of greenhouse gases, provides about a third of the country’s domestic fuel, making it both an economic linchpin and an environmental liability.

Although neither the South African government nor Sasol has announced plans to close the plant, the findings emerge amid heightened shareholder pressure and banks pulling back from financing carbon-intensive assets. Last year Sasol announced a reduction in its planned emissions-reduction spending, seeking to preserve as much as $1 billion through a series of trade-offs while still pledging a 30 % cut in greenhouse gases by 2030. The country, which generates roughly 80 % of its power from coal, faces mounting international climate scrutiny, leaving its industrial core vulnerable to policy and financial shifts.