US blockade squeezes Iran oil as Gulf rivals gear up to boost exports

A US-imposed naval blockade continues to choke Iran’s ability to sell oil, yet significant volumes still traverse the Strait of Hormuz through covert ship-to-ship operations by Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE, estimated at roughly 7-8 million barrels per day. Combined with pipeline flows, this supplies about half of pre-war export levels, tempering price spikes. Satellite imagery shows Saudi Arabia readying vessels on both sides of the strait, indicating a forthcoming increase in its own shipments.

Iranian officials, including Majidreza Hariri of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce, warn the blockade will cripple the economy and urge any means to lift it. Meanwhile, Iran has upgraded its missile arsenal and reorganized its forces, while US interceptor stocks are low and carriers like the USS Abraham Lincoln face logistical and morale issues, limiting further escalation. Experts caution that Iran’s higher tolerance for economic pain could prompt a return to kinetic conflict.