US fertility rate drops nearly 25% in two decades, immigrant births now one quarter

Recent statistics reveal that the fertility rate among US women has declined by almost a quarter since the year preceding the Great Recession, slipping below the 2.1 births per woman needed for natural population replacement. Immigrant mothers now represent roughly a quarter of all births, translating to about 800,000 to 900,000 children each year. Although foreign-born women still average 1.79 births per woman compared with 1.53 for native-born women, both figures remain far below replacement levels.

Forecasts show the total US fertility rate will edge down from 1.58 to 1.53 by 2056, with native-born rates falling from 1.53 to 1.50 and immigrant rates dropping from 1.79 to 1.66. Consequently, annual population growth is expected to slow from 0.3% to 0.1% after 2037, potentially leading to a population decline in the latter half of the century even with continued immigration.