US mulls 90-day diesel export ban as India boosts shipments amid tight markets

Facing pressure to curb fuel prices before the November midterm elections, the United States is evaluating a 90-day diesel export ban, a proposal that has split the administration and drawn criticism from the US fuel sector, which warns the measure may only provide short-term relief. India’s oil minister affirmed that the country will not curtail diesel exports and will honor its current contracts, citing expanded refining capacity and strong market positioning.

Data from Kpler shows India supplying about 10% of global diesel shipments this year, surpassing Russia to become the world’s second-largest seaborne diesel exporter. Export volumes have risen sharply, with July deliveries reaching 1.53 million barrels per day, driven by high margins, Russian export curbs, and increased refinery runs. Indian diesel has flowed to Brazil, Africa, Southeast Asia, Turkey and Europe, often shifting routes according to price spreads and freight costs. While India’s capacity supports continued high exports, analysts note that global refining is near full utilization and inventories are low, suggesting the surge may be difficult to sustain beyond 2027.