US-Russia talks and troop pullback could lower barriers to a NATO conflict

The article argues that the United States is pursuing two parallel tracks that unintentionally lower the threshold for Russian aggression: a peace framework that accepts Moscow's demands and a systematic withdrawal of US forces from Europe. It references recent dialogues between Vladimir Putin's team and Donald Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, which were described as “content-rich” by both sides. According to a Kremlin-close source, Putin expects to seize the remainder of Donetsk by the end of 2026 and sees no chance for a front-line settlement before that goal is met.

Meanwhile, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has outlined a “NATO 3.0” plan that would shift conventional defence responsibilities to European allies while the US focuses on strategic and nuclear priorities, with a decision expected by December. The piece warns that the combination of a politically cheap peace on Moscow’s terms and a militarily weaker US presence could enable Russia to launch a war against NATO as early as three years from now, leaving Europe inadequately defended until at least 2035.