US struggles to rebuild rare-earth supply chain as China’s export controls loom
China’s temporary suspension of rare-earth export limits ends on Nov. 10, 2026, threatening U.S. efforts to revive domestic processing and reduce reliance on Beijing.
Rare-earth elements essential to smartphones, electric vehicles and military hardware are still largely processed in China, which controls about 91% of the refining stage. After a 2025 export-control showdown, China suspended the measures until Nov. 10, 2026, following a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The United States has committed more than $7 billion since April 2025, with the Pentagon buying a stake in MP Materials and the Commerce Department earmarking funds for USA Rare Earth, but progress is slow and expertise scarce.
China’s continued licensing requirements and a June 2026 export-control list that includes MP Materials and USA Rare Earth complicate the build-out. Ford’s Chicago assembly line was forced idle in May 2025 when magnet supplies ran short, illustrating the immediate impact on manufacturers. If the pause is extended, the broader restrictions stay lifted, yet heavy-rare-earth licenses and the blacklist will still apply, leaving U.S. firms exposed to future Chinese leverage.
Why it matters
U.S. defense and tech industries risk disruption if Chinese rare-earth controls resume, affecting national security and supply chains.
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