Vance says US-Iran conflict will shift dramatically after midterms

Vice President JD Vance, speaking on Air Force Two, said the United States and Iran are poised to enter a distinctly different stage of their war within a few months, and that the conflict should wrap up immediately after the upcoming midterm elections. He explained that, although the Strait of Hormuz remains contested, traffic through the chokepoint has climbed to well over 50% of its normal volume, indicating reduced Iranian control.

Vance emphasized that the US is not launching new aggressive strikes, but Iranian forces still sporadically target commercial shipping, prompting the US to run covert "dark" escort missions for oil tankers. He outlined two phases of the campaign: the first, already completed, eliminated Iran’s nuclear program and much of its conventional military power; the second will focus on ensuring Tehran cannot rebuild its capabilities and on preserving global stability.

The vice president also referenced a June memorandum of understanding that began a cease-fire for nuclear negotiations, while noting uncertainty about whether the president will intensify attacks after the election. President Donald Trump has suggested oil prices will fall sharply after the vote and expects the war to end promptly.