Vance trails most Democratic contenders in 2028 poll averages, leads only AOC
In early 2028 general-election simulations, Vice President JD Vance falls behind four Democratic rivals and holds a slim edge over Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Current hypothetical match-ups compiled by Race to the WH indicate that Vice President JD Vance is behind former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (48.5% to 43.9%) and Senator Jon Ossoff (48.5% to 44.1%) in head-to-head polls, with former Vice President Kamala Harris (48.3% to 44.4%) and Governor Gavin Newsom (45.5% to 43.6%) also ahead. The only Democrat tested who lags Vance is Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, at 42% versus Vance’s 44.9%.
The data reflect no official candidacies, and Vance has said he will wait until after the November midterms before discussing a presidential bid. Recent polls show Buttigieg gaining ground on Vance, while Rubio has closed the gap among Republican primary voters. Prediction markets still favor Vance for the GOP nomination but give Democrats a clear edge in the overall 2028 race.
Why it matters
The poll results reveal how early voter preferences could shape the 2028 presidential contest for both parties.
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