Victoria faces up to $1.8 billion budget loss as property prices tumble
Falling house values could strip as much as $1.8 billion from Victoria’s budget this year, jeopardising the state’s projected surplus.
Recent forecasts from Domain, Westpac and Commonwealth Bank show Melbourne’s residential market slipping by 4 % to 10 %, a stark contrast to the Treasury’s May projection of 3.9 % growth to June 2027. Because stamp duty and land tax together account for $17.7 billion of the state’s revenue, a 4 % price decline could erase up to $1.8 billion from the 2026-27 budget, threatening the Labor government’s promised $1 billion surplus.
Sensitivity analysis in the budget papers estimates a $228 million loss for each percentage point the market underperforms, with additional hits from lower sales volumes. The government maintains the budget factored in a market cooling, citing strong home-building activity, while opposition leader Jess Wilson criticised the over-reliance on property taxes. Experts such as RMIT’s David Hayward say the combined effect of lower prices, higher interest rates and reduced sales could further erode revenue, echoing concerns in other indebted east-coast states.
Why it matters
A property-price slump could force Victoria to revise its budget, affecting public services and taxpayers.
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