Vijay Gokhale warns India to brace for China’s sustained grey-zone pressure

Vijay Gokhale, author of a new book on China’s coercive tactics, argued that Beijing waits for favorable international conditions before launching pre-emptive moves that it frames as self-defence. He cited the 1962 war and recent grey-zone incidents in the LAC, South China Sea and East China Sea as examples of this strategy. According to Gokhale, China’s aim is to exhaust India financially and militarily while keeping it restricted to South Asia.

He warned that although a large-scale war may be irrational for China, its opaque decision-making leaves the risk open. Gokhale also highlighted potential instability after Xi Jinping’s rule, which could spur adventurous foreign policy. He concluded that India should strengthen its own capabilities and diplomatic positioning regardless of which global order emerges.