War-driven disruptions tighten global ship-fuel supplies and raise freight costs
Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are cutting heavy fuel oil output, creating a shortage that could lift worldwide shipping rates.
The shipping sector is confronting a tightening of heavy fuel oil supplies as wars in West Asia and Europe divert crude processing toward higher-margin products like diesel and jet fuel. Data show Gulf fuel-oil exports dropped 45% year-on-year, while Russian refinery output fell after Ukrainian drone strikes, leaving global fuel-oil shipments at a record low of 591,000 barrels per day in August. Energy consultancy Energy Aspects forecasts a 218,000-barrel-per-day deficit for the third quarter, the first such gap since 2025.
The shortage is driving up bunker-fuel prices, with Singapore’s VLSFO price climbing 76% since the Iran conflict began. Stockpiles in the Netherlands and the UAE are also about 30% below three-year averages, threatening higher freight costs and potentially curbing trade flows, especially in Asia which relies heavily on Gulf supplies.
Why it matters
Higher ship-fuel costs could raise global freight rates, affecting prices of goods for consumers and manufacturers worldwide.
How the sides frame it
HIGH AGREEMENTBoth camps report that wars and refinery shifts are tightening bunker-fuel supplies and raising costs, but the left-leaning coverage stresses the war-driven diversion of crude and record-low shipments, while the right-leaning coverage adds emphasis on tanker-route constraints and China’s cut-back on refinery throughput and exports.
LEFT
War-driven disruptions are tightening heavy fuel oil supplies and pushing up freight costs.
RIGHT
Refinery shifts and geopolitical tensions are threatening bunker-fuel supply, with added focus on tanker-route limits and China’s output cuts.
The left emphasises
- wars in West Asia and Europe divert crude processing toward higher-margin products
- Gulf fuel-oil exports dropped 45% year-on-year and global shipments hit a record low of 591,000 bpd in August
- Singapore’s VLSFO price rose 76% since the Iran conflict began
The right emphasises
- ongoing wars and tanker-route constraints tightening the bunker-fuel market
- refineries redirecting crude into diesel and higher-profit fuels, reducing bunker-fuel volume
- China’s decision to lower refinery throughput and export volumes further straining global supplies
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