Weak monsoon slashes Indian farm output, threatens rural spending

The June-September monsoon this year was the weakest since 2015, with rainfall 12.6% below the long-term norm, according to the India Meteorological Department. Farmers in Haryana and surrounding states report rice harvests up to 20% lower than last year and higher expenses for chemicals, fuel and irrigation, eroding profit margins. Shopkeepers in market towns such as Karnal, who rely on seasonal rural spending for appliances and wedding goods, are seeing fewer orders as cash dries up.

Analysts link the weaker harvest to softer farm incomes, which could curb overall rural consumption and add to price pressures that have already pushed inflation above the RBI's 4% target. The shortfall also raises concerns for the upcoming wheat and rapeseed sowing season, while global markets watch India’s role as a major grain producer. The full economic impact will become clearer later in the year as winter crops develop.