Weak US jobs and French market strain dampen Fed and ECB rate-hike expectations

Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will release the minutes of their September policy meetings, during which they raised key interest rates. In the United States, fresh employment figures revealed weaker job creation and stagnant wages, and a recent revision to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure showed a modest softening, prompting some policymakers to question the need for further hikes before the end of 2026.

Fed vice-chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams have both expressed limited urgency for another move. In Europe, inflation in September rose above forecasts, driven largely by energy costs, but market stress—especially in France, where fiscal and budgetary worries are mounting—has pushed expectations for an October ECB rate increase to very low levels. Investors will also watch upcoming central-bank decisions in India, Kenya, Peru and other economies, while the ECB’s September minutes and upcoming leadership discussions add further intrigue to the policy outlook.