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Western intelligence warns Russia could test NATO with attacks within months

European spy chiefs say Russia may launch drone or missile strikes against NATO territory in the coming months, while Russia's United Russia party is poised for a landslide in its first wartime parliamentary vote.

Senior security officials from the Czech Republic, Latvia and Poland have cautioned that Russia may attempt a direct incursion into NATO space within months, using drones or missiles to test the alliance’s collective defence commitment. Their warnings come as Russia’s United Russia party is slated for a decisive victory in the country’s first wartime parliamentary election, a result many observers label a far-cooked sham.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German authorities have warned of an upsurge in Russian hybrid tactics, from drone flights near critical sites to cyber intrusions and alleged state-sponsored terrorism at Leipzig airport. Analysts note that Moscow’s strategy appears to shift from random sabotage toward targeted attacks on infrastructure supporting Ukraine. The growing frequency of these covert operations is straining European intelligence services, which must now treat each incident as a potential terror act. The combined threat underscores heightened security concerns across the continent as the war in Ukraine remains static.

Why it matters

A possible Russian strike on NATO could destabilize European security and intensify the hybrid war affecting many countries.

How this story developed

  1. Sep 3 Putin links Far East investment, demographic policy and Ukraine war at Eastern Economic Forum
  2. Sep 14 A train carrying former British prime minister Boris Johnson and other senior officials was reported to be near the drone strike.
  3. Sep 14 Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky announced Ukraine had offered its allies to secure an agreement with Russia to end destruction of critical infrastructure.
  4. Sep 14 NATO pledged to increase military aid to Ukraine and reinforce its eastern flank.
  5. Sep 14 Kim Jong-un promised his “unwavering support” to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a letter, calling Russia’s war “sacred”.
  6. Sep 15 Report clarified that the damaged locomotive was intended to adjust wheelsets for differing track gauges.
  7. Sep 15 NATO Secretary General said the alliance will raise its aid to Ukraine.
  8. Sep 15 President Emmanuel Macron announced new measures to shield France's critical infrastructure from escalating Russian hybrid attacks, including drones and cyber threats.
  9. Sep 15 Poland began fortifying its border crossings with temporary sand‑filled blast walls and new observation posts at Dorohusk, Medyka and Korczowa.
  10. Sep 17 A fourth Russian strike on the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works wounded a worker.
  11. Sep 17 A Russian jet‑drone strike near the Polish‑Ukrainian border triggered air‑defence alerts and fighter scrambles.
  12. Sep 18 Macron ordered a protection scheme for critical infrastructure.
  13. Sep 19 Tusk invoked NATO’s Article 4 and announced a trip to Kyiv.
  14. Sep 20 Ukraine announced new long‑range drone attacks on targets in the Moscow region.

In this story

RussiaNATOhybrid attacksdrone strikewartime electionUnited RussiaEuropean securityintelligence warningsshadow war
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