Western powers face simultaneous setbacks in Ukraine and the Red Sea corridor

The piece argues that the optimism surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war has faded as Russian troops push further into the Donbas region, while the Houthis have captured Mokha and the pivotal Perim Island near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This development threatens to disrupt a major maritime chokepoint that handles a significant share of Saudi oil shipments, pushing Brent crude back to roughly $100 a barrel. Higher oil prices are expected to raise costs for gasoline, heating fuel and other products across the West, yet they also provide a financial windfall for Russia, whose economy relies heavily on energy exports.

Former CIA director Leon Panetta is quoted warning of a “forever war,” and the analysis highlights the limited military capacity of the United States and Europe to sustain long-term combat. The author concludes that without a clear strategy, the West may continue to fund Ukraine and confront Iran without committing troops, risking a drawn-out stalemate on both fronts.