What could shift mortgage rates this September? Three factors to watch

After a steep decline in 2025, mortgage rates rebounded in 2026 and have held steady through the summer, leaving many borrowers on the sidelines. September offers several potential catalysts: the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release August inflation figures on September 11, which could sway the Federal Reserve’s outlook at its September 15-16 meeting. The central bank’s commentary, even without an outright rate cut, can move mortgage pricing.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments—particularly tensions involving Iran and other overseas conflicts—continue to affect oil prices and inflation, which in turn influence rates. Lenders may adjust offers independently of Fed moves, so borrowers should monitor these signals, improve credit scores now, and consider rate-lock strategies to capture any temporary dips.