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White House misstates homicide declines to credit Trump’s National Guard deployments

The administration cited a crime-statistics report to claim that cities where Trump sent National Guard troops saw the biggest homicide drops, but the data show otherwise.

The White House promoted a Council on Criminal Justice mid-year report as proof that Trump’s deployment of National Guard forces and federal officials to certain cities curbed homicides. The administration named Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, Memphis and New Orleans as the top four cities with the sharpest declines, yet the report identified Lincoln, Nebraska; Rochester, New York; and Little Rock, Arkansas as the true leaders, with Washington only sixth and Los Angeles seventeenth.

Memphis and New Orleans do not appear in the original study, and the administration’s citation of a separate article was disputed by its author. A subsequent release cited one outlet's analysis of a Major Cities Chiefs Association survey, again claiming high rankings for Washington and Memphis, but neither source linked the broader fall in homicide rates to Trump’s actions. Experts note that factors such as community-violence programs, not federal troop deployments, likely drove the observed changes, while the administration has simultaneously cut significant federal gun-violence-prevention funding.

Why it matters

Misrepresenting crime data can shape public opinion on federal interventions and policy priorities.

How this story developed

  1. Aug 4 Pentagon estimates $1.4 billion extra cost for DC National Guard deployment
  2. Aug 11 The deployment was officially extended to January 2029.
  3. Aug 13 A federal appeals court permitted the National Guard deployment to remain in place pending further judicial review.

In this story

homicide ratescrime statisticsTrump administrationmisleading datagun violence fundingcommunity violence intervention
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