Why Great Powers Slip into Costly Quagmires and How to Avoid Them

In his analysis, Stephen M. Walt traces a series of U.S. and Russian adventures that have drained resources and weakened global standing, from the “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan to lesser interventions in Libya, Yemen, Syria and parts of Africa, as well as Russia’s failed support for Viktor Yanukovych, Bashar al-Assad and the current conflict in Ukraine. He contrasts these with China’s strategy of avoiding costly overseas wars while building military capability and economic influence, especially in the South China Sea and global supply chains.

Walt pinpoints four precursors to quagmires: lack of knowledge about the target country, advice from self-interested actors, a decision-making process that silences dissent, and overconfidence that underestimates post-victory challenges. He warns that unreliable local partners and concerns over credibility often trap leaders into prolonged fights, and argues that a fundamental reluctance to engage in wars of choice is the best safeguard. The piece concludes that China’s current approach reflects a superior understanding of these risks.