Why recent primary polls missed the mark in Michigan and Wisconsin races

Recent primary outcomes have highlighted the unreliability of many pre-election polls. In Michigan, progressive Abdul El-Sayed entered the Democratic Senate primary with a double-digit lead but ultimately edged out moderate Haley Stevens by just one point. Wisconsin’s Democratic governor contest saw Francesca Hong, who led in polls, defeated by David Crowley amid a chaotic campaign and a large pool of undecided voters.

Ipsos senior vice-president Courtney Kennedy explained that primary polling carries three times the error margin of national surveys, partly because pollsters often rely on low-cost text-to-web techniques that skew toward engaged, younger, progressive respondents. A more expensive phone-based poll in Michigan captured moderate voters more accurately, underscoring the impact of methodology. Additionally, a fabricated poll from a group calling itself Median Strategies, later admitted to be a social experiment, raised concerns about verifying poll legitimacy.