Why Russia Needs Economic Incentives, Not Just War Threats, to Preserve Peace

The article contends that Russia’s fear of losing peace should stem from economic loss rather than the prospect of renewed fighting. Historical examples—Korea’s armistice and West Germany’s 1972 Basic Treaty—show how a contested border can be managed without conceding sovereignty, allowing the affected state to build a prosperous future behind the line. Ukraine now fields a defence industry worth around $55 billion a year and benefits from a European defence budget approaching €454 billion, giving it leverage over Moscow.

The author proposes a step-by-step sanctions-relief scheme that begins with limited easing, expands to financial channels and asset compensation, and ultimately restores strategic ties after the New START treaty expires. A non-negotiable condition is the immediate return of roughly 20,500 Ukrainian children taken to Russia. Failure to secure such a framework could push Russia into greater reliance on China, diminishing its global standing. The broader vision is a regional security and economic architecture that deters aggression while making peace financially attractive.