Why Washington's Threats to Sanction China Lack Credibility
The article argues that U.S. attempts to pressure China through secondary sanctions on Iran's trade partners are unlikely to succeed.
U.S. officials are proposing secondary sanctions that would target firms dealing with Iran, effectively aiming at China, which is Iran's biggest trade partner. The commentary recalls how China weathered a massive property bubble and a shadow-banking crisis without a deep recession, and argues that its economy can absorb further strain. In contrast, the United States is described as financially vulnerable, with fragile debt and stock markets that could not endure a major shock.
The author frames the situation as a game of chicken, predicting that Washington will concede first to avoid self-inflicted damage. Past U.S. measures against China in trade and technology have not forced a recession there, and the piece concludes that China has little incentive to react to additional sanction threats.
Why it matters
Understanding the limits of U.S. sanction policy helps gauge future economic tensions between the two largest economies.
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