World Bank forecasts Europe-Central Asia growth to slow to 2.2% in 2026

According to the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, growth in the region is projected to decline to 2.2% in 2026 from 2.6% the previous year, reflecting broad-based weakness. Excluding Russia, the pace is also expected to moderate. The report points to AI as a potential driver of higher productivity, provided that foundational skills and labor-market institutions are strengthened.

Central Asian economies such as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are forecast to grow strongly, while Poland is expected to maintain growth near 3.6%. Ukraine’s expansion is likely to slow to about 1.2% due to ongoing infrastructure damage and export disruptions. The analysis warns that elevated energy prices, inflation, and competition in key export sectors, especially automotive supply chains, pose downside risks, along with possible trade disruptions, tighter financing conditions, and extreme weather events.