WTO lifts 2026 trade growth outlook as AI surge and Middle East disruptions reshape markets
The World Trade Organization raised its 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast, citing AI-driven investment and shifting shipping routes that benefit countries like Pakistan.
The WTO’s 2026 outlook now projects a higher expansion rate for global merchandise trade, driven by a robust wave of AI-related investment and increased availability of fuels and fertilizers from non-Middle-East sources. Despite ongoing conflict in the region, the organization observes that rerouted shipping traffic has opened new export avenues, highlighted by a surge in Pakistan’s sea-freight transport services. Container calls at Karachi’s major terminals remained well above the previous year’s level, while computer services exports rose markedly in nations such as Malaysia, Pakistan and Brazil.
The shift in vessel routes has also strained capacity in South Asia, prompting carriers like MSC to impose congestion surcharges on shipments to South Asian destinations. The WTO cautioned that higher transport costs could eventually be passed to consumers and that the outlook remains vulnerable to the duration of the Middle East conflict and potential slowdowns in AI spending.
Why it matters
The revised trade forecast signals stronger global economic activity but also highlights rising shipping costs and geopolitical risks.
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