Xi Jinping's health worries could trigger a global power transition crisis

Geremie R. Barmé and other China specialists argue that Xi Jinping’s deteriorating health marks the start of a “death watch” that will reverberate worldwide. The 73-year-old leader struggled physically during a recent summit with Donald Trump, and officials even requested a private “hold room” at the White House for him. Unlike previous transitions, China’s current centrality in global affairs means that any succession uncertainty could sway markets, investment decisions, and defense postures.

Scholars warn that naming a successor now could spark a bitter power fight, while waiting too long risks a leadership vacuum. Potential successors are limited, as most Politburo Standing Committee members are considered too old, raising doubts about their ability to command the military and maintain Party unity. The situation may lead to prolonged economic slowdown, social unrest, and a more aggressive stance toward Taiwan, possibly increasing the likelihood of conflict.