Yemen's coastal offensive targets Bab al-Mandeb, reshaping regional power dynamics

Government-aligned forces have begun Operation Yemen’s Dawn, moving northward along the coast and now confronting fortified Houthi positions around the Bab al-Mandeb strait, including fighting in Dhubab District and near Dhubab Airport. President Rashad Al-Alimi of the Presidential Leadership Council has shifted the campaign’s rhetoric from merely containing the Houthis to restoring state institutions and liberating Sanaa, giving the battles a national dimension.

While recapturing coastal sites could limit Houthi maneuverability, it does not automatically secure the strait, as the rebels retain missile and drone capabilities that threaten Red Sea navigation. The conflict is linked to the wider Iran-Saudi confrontation, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps allegedly directing Houthi coastal actions and promising further aid, prompting expectations of a Saudi response that may target deeper Houthi assets.

Gulf cooperation on a joint military front remains uncertain due to divergent Saudi and Emirati priorities, though Pakistan and Turkiye have pledged support for Saudi Arabia under the Mecca Pact, leaving the extent of their involvement unclear. The United States may continue limited deterrence and maritime security roles but is unlikely to shift the battlefield balance decisively. The outcome hinges on whether government forces can hold reclaimed positions, secure supply routes, and neutralize highland Houthi threats, or whether a protracted attrition war will ensue, with significant humanitarian and economic repercussions for the region.