AfD scores major regional victories as Polish poll gauges perceived threat
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while a Polish survey shows mixed views on whether its rise endangers Poland.
AfD achieved its strongest regional performance to date by winning the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, though it did not obtain a solo governing majority in either legislature. The party also leads the latest nationwide German opinion surveys, surpassing the CDU/CSU. In a separate study ordered by rp.pl, 800 Polish internet panelists were asked if AfD’s electoral gains threaten Poland; the results showed a divided opinion, with a notable portion seeing a danger, another segment dismissing it, and a large group undecided.
The perception of threat was higher among men and respondents over fifty, and it rose with higher educational attainment. Local constitutional protection agencies in eastern Germany label AfD as extremist, a classification the party is contesting in court. The Polish poll was conducted on 22-23 September 2026 using a quota-based random sample.
Why it matters
AfD’s regional wins and rising popularity could reshape German politics and affect neighboring Poland’s security outlook.
How this story developed
- Sep 13 Sloterdijk’s interview at the Hay Festival added new commentary on the AfD’s trajectory.
- Sep 20 Chancellor Friedrich Merz admitted his CDU suffered a crushing defeat in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD reached 37% while the CDU fell to 5.5%.
- Sep 20 AfD emerged as the front‑runner in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern and Die Linke topped the Berlin vote.
- Sep 21 The CDU failed to clear the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, losing all its seats in the state parliament.
- Sep 21 Elif Eralp, the daughter of Turkish left-wing refugees, was named Die Linke's lead candidate for the Berlin mayoral race, drawing parallels to New York mayor Bill de Blasio’s predecessor.
- Sep 21 Speaking on Tagesschau Extra, Krings said a division of the two top positions has not been ruled out and should be openly discussed. He recalled past CDU experiences where combining the roles proved problematic and stressed that the country's interests must come before personal ambitions. Krings added that the party must focus on overdue reforms rather than debating leadership changes, especially after recent electoral defeats in several states.
- Sep 21 The Greens announced they will seek a red‑green‑red coalition with the Left and SPD.
- Sep 21 AfD received about 44% of the vote in Saxony‑Anhalt, falling short of a majority by three seats.
- Sep 22 The CDU top council met on Monday to voice concerns about the party’s leadership.
- Sep 23 SPD and Greens require Die Linke to demonstrate anti‑antisemitism safeguards before coalition talks can proceed.
- Sep 24 Merz faces mounting pressure after the regional setbacks.
- Sep 24 The Israeli ambassador warned of an “immediate existential threat” to Berlin’s Jewish community over alleged antisemitism in the party.
- Sep 24 The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance pledged support for the AfD’s speaker nominee, creating a parliamentary majority for the AfD in Saxony‑Anhalt.
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