Analysts Warn Oil Prices May Stabilize Above $100 per Barrel Amid Ongoing Supply Risks
S&P Global Energy and other analysts say crude prices above $100 a barrel are becoming a lasting trend due to persistent supply disruptions.
Recent spikes have pushed crude oil above $100 per barrel, and analysts now view this level as a new normal rather than a temporary surge. The rise, about 23% since late August, follows heightened attacks on key West Asian routes, raising concerns over supply continuity. S&P Global Energy does not expect West Asian production to rebound to pre-war volumes by the end of 2027, forecasting monthly exports of 10-16 million barrels versus roughly 20 million before the conflict.
Tight supply is compounded by limited refining capacity, especially after damage from the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Iran conflict, while China’s reduced crude purchases further dampen demand. Consequently, Brent is projected to average around $90 this year and $86 in 2027, within an $80-$100 range. Rabobank International maintains a $90 forecast for late 2026 and sees a slight dip to $86 by mid-2027.
Why it matters
Higher, sustained oil prices affect global inflation, energy costs and economic stability.
How this story developed
- Jul 20 U.S. and Iran intensify air strikes over Strait of Hormuz, diplomacy stalls
- Sep 3 Iran's army claimed radar systems and locations where American forces were stationed at the UAE's Al Minhad Air Base were attacked with missiles and drones.
- Sep 4 Iran has begun testing methanol as an oxygenate in its gasoline blend.
- Sep 4 The United Arab Emirates announced a full stop to commercial and financial dealings with Iran.
- Sep 4 Iran announced missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
- Sep 5 Republican committees have filed a petition with the Supreme Court challenging the Fourth Circuit ruling.
- Sep 5 U.S. forces hit launchers on Larak Island and Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. sites in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- Sep 5 Vance publicly downplayed the reported civilian deaths from the alleged strike.
- Sep 5 Eyewitnesses said the explosions shattered the wedding celebration in Kuhestak.
- Sep 7 GasBuddy released a forecast predicting a $4.03 average gasoline price for the Labor Day weekend.
- Sep 7 Brent crude climbed to about $97 a barrel as US‑Iran clashes intensified, and analysts said gasoline prices may ease in October with the shift to winter‑grade fuel.
- Sep 9 The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it will soon publish coordinates for a new restricted sea zone stretching from Chabahar into the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, affecting vessels that enter or later attempt the Strait of Hormuz.
- Sep 10 Iran announced the zone will begin around Chabahar and cover parts of the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea.
- Sep 11 Fed minutes revealed a 9‑3 vote to keep rates near 3.6% and a drop in market odds for a September hike to about 67%.
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