Atlantic hurricane season hits unprecedented lull through September amid strong El Niño
The Atlantic has seen no hurricanes through September, a first in the modern record, while a powerful El Niño suppresses storms there and fuels activity in the Pacific.
For the first time in the modern Atlantic hurricane record, the season has progressed to the end of September without a single hurricane, despite historically warm ocean temperatures. Experts attribute this anomaly to an exceptionally strong El Niño, which generates heightened wind shear that disrupts storm formation in the Atlantic while intensifying activity in the eastern Pacific and leading to a busy season for Hawaii.
Meteorologist Michael Lowry describes the situation as surreal, noting that September typically marks the peak of Atlantic cyclones. Tropical Storm Fay, which emerged as a tropical depression on September 19, nearly reached hurricane intensity, though satellite wind estimates may be inflated. The National Hurricane Center plans to review the data to determine if Fay qualifies as a hurricane, which would set a new record for the latest hurricane formation. Regardless of Fay's final classification, the season remains unusually quiet, offering relief to regions recently battered by severe storms.
Why it matters
The unprecedented lack of Atlantic hurricanes this September highlights how climate patterns like El Niño can dramatically alter storm risks.
How this story developed
- Aug 31 UN warns that a record-breaking El Niño could trigger worldwide extreme weather
- Sep 3 UN says the El Niño is expected to remain in place until February 2027.
- Sep 7 Britain announced cuts of more than 80 % to bilateral aid in eight African states.
- Sep 7 UK models show a higher likelihood of stormier, wetter conditions during autumn and winter.
- Sep 9 The contiguous United States experienced its warmest June-August period on record, with an average temperature of 74.4°F, according to NOAA.
- Sep 10 August 2026 set a new all‑time monthly heat record and drought drove the two biggest western water reservoirs to their lowest historic levels.
- Sep 21 The system, now classified as a hurricane, is positioned about 270 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo and 190 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, with sustained winds of 80 mph. Forecasts suggest it could reach major-hurricane strength by Tuesday and maintain a trajectory offshore while dumping 4-8 inches of rain across Guerrero and Michoacan through Thursday. Tourist hubs such as Acapulco, Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara may experience rough seas and gusty conditions, and the moisture could trigger flash-flood threats in the U.S. Southwest later in the week.
- Sep 23 Polo intensified to Category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph.
- Sep 24 Authorities opened shelters and deployed thousands of military and Red Cross personnel to assist affected communities.
- Sep 29 Probability estimates now place a greater than 90% chance that the El Niño will remain very strong through February 2027.
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