Supercharged El Niño intensifies, raising risk of warmer winters and extreme weather worldwide
Scientists report that a very powerful El Niño is developing in the Pacific, with sea‑surface temperatures more than 3 °C above normal in several regions and a deep heat pool moving eastward beneath the surface. Weakened trade winds and strong westerly anomalies have accelerated the eastward transport of warm water, prompting forecasts that give a greater than 90% probability of a very strong El Niño persisting through the coming winter months.
The event is expected to produce warmer winter conditions across Europe and North America, while increasing flood risk in Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela and northern Brazil and heightening drought and fire danger in southern Africa and the Amazon basin. Climate officials have warned that the super‑El Niño could exacerbate food‑price pressures and strain disaster response worldwide.
How this was covered
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Why it matters
The intensifying El Niño can alter temperatures, precipitation and agricultural yields, directly affecting everyday weather and food costs.
How this story developed
- Aug 31 UN warns that a record-breaking El Niño could trigger worldwide extreme weather
- Sep 3 Temperatures will rise to around 27 °C in parts of southern England on Sunday, while rain and wind are expected to return early next week.
- Sep 3 UN says the El Niño is expected to remain in place until February 2027.
- Sep 5 Czech forecasts include a possible rapid temperature rise to around 30 °C early next week.
- Sep 7 Britain announced cuts of more than 80 % to bilateral aid in eight African states.
- Sep 7 UK models show a higher likelihood of stormier, wetter conditions during autumn and winter.
- Sep 9 A brief spell of 27‑28 °C heat is expected in southeast England on Sunday.
- Sep 9 The contiguous United States experienced its warmest June-August period on record, with an average temperature of 74.4°F, according to NOAA.
- Sep 10 August 2026 set a new all‑time monthly heat record and drought drove the two biggest western water reservoirs to their lowest historic levels.
- Sep 13 Forecasts now show showers spreading across the west and east of the UK by Tuesday, following the brief heat spike.
- Sep 20 New forecasts show London reaching about 24 °C by Monday and showers expected in Manchester from Thursday.
- Sep 21 HungaroMet forecasts a temperature drop across Hungary starting Monday, with strong north-west winds and occasional showers.
- Sep 28 The latest forecast adds warm daytime highs of 21‑26 °C and mostly sunny skies.
- Sep 29 Probability estimates now place a greater than 90% chance that the El Niño will remain very strong through February 2027.
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