Australia faces population decline as fertility falls and baby bonus remains off the table

Australia's newest Intergenerational Report predicts a continued decline in fertility, dropping to 1.34 births per woman within 40 years and resulting in more deaths than births by 2066. The projection assumes a net migration intake of about 235,000 people annually, which will eventually slow population growth to 0.6 percent and increase the dependency ratio of retirees to workers. Treasury Minister Jim Chalmers said the government will not revive the baby bonus, instead targeting early childhood education reforms, expanded paid parental leave and super contributions to make childrearing easier.

Opposition spokesperson Andrew Hastie expressed openness to revisiting the bonus, while Assistant Minister Andrew Leigh argued that affordable childcare is the key lever for higher birth rates. The Grattan Institute warned that cutting migration would raise tax burdens, and the report estimates that a lower migration scenario could shrink the economy by 7.4 percent by 2066, though per-capita living standards would remain largely unchanged.