Brazilian runoff race tightens as Bolsonaro's lead over Lula shrinks
A new Quaest poll shows Senator Flavio Bolsonaro's advantage over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has narrowed to 45% versus 44% ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff.
The latest survey by polling firm Quaest, conducted between Oct. 17 and Oct. 20, indicates that Bolsonaro's support slipped to 45%, just one point ahead of Lula's 44%. This follows a televised debate on Sunday and a previous poll a week earlier that had Bolsonaro at 46% and Lula at 44%. The poll sampled 2,154 respondents and carries a margin of error of two percentage points.
Why it matters
The narrowing gap signals a highly contested Brazilian election that could shape the country's political direction.
How this story developed
- Oct 4 Portugal sees alcohol dependence surge while Brazil heads to tightly contested election
- Oct 4 First round of voting produced no candidate with over 50%, making a runoff likely.
- Oct 5 First‑round results show Flávio Bolsonaro ahead with 47.1% and Lula at 45%, triggering a runoff on Oct 25.
- Oct 5 Senator Flavio Bolsonaro said the recent vote gave the right a dominant majority in Brazil's Senate and Chamber of Deputies.
- Oct 6 Flavio Bolsonaro secured a first‑round victory, making him the runoff frontrunner.
- Oct 9 Augusto Cury announced he will vote for Bolsonaro in the runoff.
- Oct 10 Former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema and former President Michel Temer publicly endorsed Flavio Bolsonaro.
- Oct 10 President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign says Meta restricted his content on Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp as the presidential runoff approaches.
- Oct 13 Senator Flavio Bolsonaro announced he will vote for a constitutional amendment that cuts Brazil’s standard workweek from 44 to 40 hours, reversing his party’s previous opposition.
- Oct 16 Senate ratified the constitutional amendment following Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s earlier announcement of support.
- Oct 16 A new Datafolha poll released Thursday shows Bolsonaro maintaining a narrow lead over Lula within the margin of error.
- Oct 19 The first televised debate between the two candidates was held a week before the runoff.
- Oct 20 Lula’s closing remarks were interrupted when the moderator announced he had run out of time.
- Oct 20 The court increased the daily penalty on Meta.
In this story
Brazilian electionrunoffpolldebatevote marginFlavio BolsonaroLuiz Inacio Lula da Silva
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