Canada braces for 50% U.S. tariff as trade talks stall near deadline

Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s trade minister, is scheduled to brief his provincial counterparts on the status of negotiations with the United States ahead of a planned 50 percent tariff on about $20 billion of Canadian products, a levy that would bypass the Canada-U.S-Mexico trade pact. Sources indicate the two governments remain "very far apart," with Washington pressing for gains in dairy, liquor and digital services, while Ottawa focuses on easing Section 232 national-security duties affecting steel, aluminum, copper, automotive and forestry sectors.

Past experience shows last-minute deals are possible, as seen in 2018 when the CUSMA agreement was clinched minutes before a Trump deadline. Yet senior Canadian officials admit uncertainty over whether a final accord can be reached, especially given the political stakes for the Prime Minister and President. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, speaking in Iowa, hinted that Canada should take a more conciliatory approach, though public appetite for large concessions remains unclear. Despite the looming tariffs, U.S. exports to Canada continue to rise, and President Trump faces constraints from markets, Congress and state opposition, suggesting the threat may recede, though existing security tariffs have already cost Canadian manufacturing 50,000 jobs.