CIS poll’s seat-count assumptions boost Sánchez’s lead, PP files lawsuit over alleged bias

In the October CIS recall barometer, the agency uses a hypothetical result of 183 seats for the PSOE and 82 for the PP, a stark contrast to the real 121 and 137 seats, which underlies a sizable lead for Pedro Sánchez in the poll. Gonzalo Adán, head of SocioMétrica, argues that the CIS’s identification on telephone calls discourages right-leaning respondents, leading to a skewed sample that distorts both recall and subsequent vote-intention estimates.

The poll’s methodology, including the Alaminos-Tezanos scenario model, is therefore under scrutiny. On March 23 the PP filed a criminal complaint against José Félix Tezanos, alleging a deliberate, systematic effort to benefit the PSOE through methodological manipulation and opaque fieldwork outsourced to Tragsatec. The complaint cites violations of electoral law and claims the CIS has over-represented the left in most recent barometers.

A Madrid judge has accepted the PP’s standing, imposed a bond, and allowed the proceedings to continue, though Tezanos has not yet been summoned. The PP says removing Tezanos will be a priority for a Feijóo government.