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Democrats surge in GOP strongholds as polls show governors trailing Trump-backed Republicans

New polls show Democrats leading or within striking distance in four traditionally Republican governor races, while Donald Trump's approval has plunged.

Recent one outlet and Siena University polling reveals Democratic contenders gaining ground in four GOP-held governor races—Rob Sand in Iowa, Amy Acton in Ohio, Gina Hinojosa in Texas, and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins in Alaska—some even leading their Republican opponents. The most notable shift is in Texas, where incumbent Greg Abbott trails Hinojosa. This trend aligns with a sharp drop in Donald Trump's approval, now in the low-30s nationwide and about 40% in the surveyed states, driven by unpopular policies such as the war on Iran and rising fuel costs.

Voter sentiment shows many view Republican governors as too far right, while Democratic candidates are seen as more moderate. The polling also suggests Democrats holding advantages in Senate contests in these states, raising concerns for GOP control of Congress. Commentators warn that continued losses could threaten the Republican Party’s future viability.

Why it matters

The poll shifts could flip key governorships and affect congressional control in the upcoming midterms.

How this story developed

  1. Sep 18 New polls show Democrats closing in on Texas statewide races, sparking GOP alarm
  2. Sep 30 Ken Paxton told a small fundraiser that the GOP midterm convention in Dallas failed to boost his poll numbers and may have actually lowered them.
  3. Oct 1 A former Republican pastor who switched to the Democratic Party, Rev. Adam Hamilton, is challenging incumbent Senator Roger Marshall as the Kansas Senate contest tightens.
  4. Oct 2 Trump visited Denton to publicly back Paxton.
  5. Oct 2 President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Paxton has prompted criticism from Republican centrists.
  6. Oct 3 The Senate Leadership Fund announced a shift of money from North Carolina to back Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas.

In this story

midterm pollsgovernor racesTrump approvalDemocratic surgeRepublican strongholdsfuel pricesswing states
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