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CROSS-SPECTRUMBROAD COVERAGE

Democrats Target Nebraska Senate Seat as Potential GOP Upset

A Trump-supporting voter in Omaha says he will back independent Dan Osborn over incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts, giving Democrats a chance to flip the Senate seat.

In Omaha, Marine Corps veteran Gunner Arellano, a longtime Trump supporter, said he will not vote for Sen. Pete Ricketts and instead will support independent Dan Osborn, who enjoys the endorsement of the Nebraska Democratic Party. Republicans have already spent $7 million on television ads and have $8 million scheduled through Election Day, while Osborn’s campaign and supporting groups have committed $3.5 million with another $1.5 million reserved.

Democrats see the race as one of the few possible pickups needed for a Senate majority, noting Ricketts’ perceived lack of presence and broader national dissatisfaction with the GOP. The contest also ties into the upcoming battle for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, where Rep. Don Bacon is retiring and Democrats hope to capitalize on the district’s occasional support for Democratic presidential candidates. Party officials on both sides argue that money may not decide the outcome, with Democrats pointing to voter fatigue with Ricketts and Republicans warning that outside groups could push the race back to a safe red seat. Voters like Sally Guest, a nurse, cite health-care costs and Ricketts’ support for cuts to the Affordable Care Act as reasons to back Osborn, while some former Democrats such as Todd Going remain wary of a perceived leftward shift in the Democratic Party.

Why it matters

The race could determine whether Democrats secure the Senate seat needed for control of the chamber.

How this story developed

  1. Sep 12 Guy Benson says Democrats are sidelining John Fetterman for lack of party loyalty
  2. Sep 23 The Barbara Jordan Center survey of 1,800 likely voters conducted Sept. 15-19 finds Talarico far ahead of Paxton with young voters, a swing of 17 points since July. Overall, the race is essentially tied, with Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%. A Talarico victory would mark the first statewide Democratic win in Texas in more than three decades. Paxton’s recent student-chapter outreach has not halted the shift toward his opponent among Gen Z.
  3. Sep 29 Jasmine Crockett announced she will not endorse James Talarico.

In this story

Nebraska Senate raceDan OsbornPete RickettsDemocratic hopescampaign spendingRepublican stronghold2024 presidential voteprairie populism
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