Eleven House contests tilt toward Democrats as midterms near

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ election forecast, revised its outlook for 11 House districts, all shifting toward Democrats as the midterm election approaches. In Virginia, three GOP incumbents—Jen Kiggans, John McGuire and Rob Wittman—saw their advantages erode, with Kiggans now rated "leans Democrat" and Wittman turned into a toss-up. Pennsylvania’s Ryan McKenzie also moved from a toss-up to "leans Democrat," while races in North Carolina and Ohio slipped from "safe" to "likely" Republican, and Missouri’s Ann Wagner shifted from "likely" to "leans" Republican.

Open seats in Montana’s 1st, Maine’s 2nd and Kentucky’s 6th districts, as well as a California district held by Derek Tran, were also nudged leftward. These changes come as Democrats maintain a five-point lead over Republicans in recent one outlet's polls, putting the GOP’s bid to retain the House in jeopardy.