Expert warns fragmented European stance could spark major conflict with Russia

Olena Davlikanova, a senior associate analyst at the Sahaidachnyi Security Center, warned that Europe’s failure to present a cohesive, rock-solid stance toward Russia constitutes a major security risk. She highlighted the presence of multiple factions eager to restore business ties with Moscow, which could embolden Russia to probe NATO’s Article 5 commitment through a series of hybrid tactics, including sabotage, cyberattacks and massive aerial terror.

Davlikanova does not rule out a limited Russian incursion into a NATO member, likely a Baltic state, aimed at demonstrating the alliance’s inability to act collectively. In such a scenario, Ukraine could become a bargaining chip, prompting some European governments to consider negotiations that might require halting support for Kyiv. The expert also pointed out that NATO’s doctrinal updates and training lag behind modern “War 5.0” demands, and that the slow pace of EU decision-making remains its greatest vulnerability. Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson recently echoed the urgency, stating that Europe has little time left to prepare for a new Russian conflict.