Final pre-election polls show Eisenkot bloc edging Netanyahu but no clear majority
The last polls released by Israel’s three main TV channels put Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar bloc ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, though neither reaches the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority.
Israel’s three leading television broadcasters have published their final pre-election seat projections. All three show Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leading the race, with the Eisenkot bloc projected to win between 52 and 56 Knesset seats, compared with 50 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition. The polls do not give either bloc a majority of the 120-seat parliament, which requires 61 seats.
Arab-majority parties, whose disqualifications were recently overturned by the Supreme Court, are forecast to obtain 14 to 16 seats. Smaller groups such as the new far-right Amcha Yisrael and the Haredi Public party fall below the threshold, while the Reservists party barely clears it in one poll. The results also detail seat expectations for parties like Together, Yisrael Beiteinu, the Democrats, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, Shas, United Torah Judaism, the Joint List and the United Arab List.
Why it matters
The polls reveal a fragmented parliament, indicating coalition negotiations will be crucial after the election.
How this story developed
- Sep 3 Netanyahu urges fragmented right-wing parties to merge ahead of October election
- Oct 7 Israel placed its security forces at maximum readiness on the anniversary, citing possible new Hamas attacks.
- Oct 7 Families of victims rallied across Israel demanding an inquiry into the October 7 response.
- Oct 7 A civilian‑led memorial ceremony was held at Yarkon Park in Tel Aviv.
- Oct 15 Journalist Yinon Magal pressed Yashar party chairman Gadi Eisenkot about the need for a Palestinian Authority during a live interview on Radio 103FM.
- Oct 18 Donald Trump publicly backed Benjamin Netanyahu’s reelection bid, saying the Israeli leader is essential to counter Iran and that a different premier would force the United States to take on more of the conflict.
- Oct 18 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked US President Donald Trump on Sunday for his support ahead of the parliamentary elections on 27 October.
- Oct 18 Trump posted his endorsement of Netanyahu on Truth Social.
- Oct 19 Netanyahu warned Israel could face a hostile U.S. president after Trump’s term.
- Oct 19 Trump warned that a different Israeli leader could compel the United States to intervene against Iran.
- Oct 20 Vice President JD Vance announced he will not support Netanyahu in the Israeli election.
- Oct 21 Channel 12 poll shows 64% of voters say Trump’s endorsement will not affect their vote, 17% say it reduces support for Netanyahu, and 12% say it reinforces support.
- Oct 22 Former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar filed a libel lawsuit claiming he warned Netanyahu before the Oct 7 assault.
- Oct 22 Eisenkot has floated a minority‑government plan and the campaign now features a dispute over Palestinian statehood.
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